Sunday, May 11, 2008

The Last Shall Be First: Daren Wins Survivor Micronesia

Credit Where Credit is Due
So, it is all over. Congratulations to Daren Blomquist for winning our second Survivor Pick 'em. Parvati stuck around and then pulled off the final vote (more on that later). Daren picked Parvati dead last. Daren actually was supposed to pick 12th, but he did not get his pick in, so he got bounced back. In the end, only Kathy and Parvati remained. Daren's wife Sarah emailed me that Daren's pick would be Kathy. I then posted all of the picks and gave my comments on them. I commented that I thought Daren should have picked Parvati instead of Kathy. Sarah then emailed me and said that she forgot how crazy Kathy was and asked if she could change the pick. We changed the pick and the rest is history.
So, the winner almost ended up being the only contestant not to be picked.
Just goes to show that you don't have to have a high pick to win this.
So, yes, I will take my lumps now. For many, many weeks I have been proclaiming that neither Parvati or Natalie could win the game. I was wrong. Parvati pulled it off. Now, let me say that I don't know if she would have pulled it off had it been a final 3 instead of a final 2 (more on this later also).

Runner-up. . .again
And Parvati won against the number 1 overall pick, Amanda (Andrea Moffat, who also picked Amanda last season). I really thought that not even Amanda could blow this one. She had Ozzy and James in her pocket, and she still found a way to lose it. Amazing. Amanda must be the worst closer in Survivor history. Let me say this, though. Last season she was awful at Final Tribal, but Todd was amazing. That combo resulted in Todd taking it. This time Parvati was not all that great. She kept asking, "Is that good enough?" after her answers. She was far from stellar at Final Tribal, but Amanda was bad. Not as bad as last season, but still bad. I feel kind of bad for her, making it so far twice and having nothing to show for it. Maybe she will win next season.

Third Place
Ah. So bummed. I don't know if she would have been able to pull it out, but I really wanted to see Cirie work it at Final Tribal. I can't believe they blindsided us with a Final Two. So bummed. I loved watching Cirie again. It makes me want to see her original season again. I was so stoked when she made it past the Natalie vote. I thought I was home-free. Then it became obvious that they were going to pull out one more challenge. Darn! Still proud of my girl.

Rounding it out
Congrats to Eric Wood for his fourth place finish with Natalie.
Okay, so what was with Natalie's question at Final Tribal. That had to be the strangest question in the history of Survivor. Did you see the look on Jeff's face? Classic.

What I Liked
1. The aforementioned look on Jeff's face when Natalie asked Parvati that awkward question.
2. James winning that special award again.
3. Erik being a good sport (brutal).
4. Alexis grabbing James' arm every chance she got.
5. Jeff blasting Fairplay for quitting.
6. Eliza saying that listening to Amanda made her want to kill herself.

What I Didn't Like
1. Of course, I didn't like my girl Cirie becoming the victim of the final twist. It was a really good surprise, though.
2. Amanda crying all the time.
3. Ozzy's ridiculous rant. I totally disliked him afterwards. I don't know if the "I hate Parvati" or the "I love Amanda" rant was worse. Both were pretty bad. It was all about him. He is lobbying for more fame. He wants to be the next Boston Rob. Maybe Ozzy and Amanda will show up on The Amazing Race now.

It's 11:15pm Pacific time. Somewhere in the world right now Amanda is crying.

So, this was fun. Thank you to each one of you. If anyone wants to volunteer to host next season, I am up for that. I don't know that I will host it again (although it was a lot of fun). So, I guess I am saying that anyone who thinks it would be fun to do what I did this season, it is fair game. You will not be stepping on my toes or anything.

Congrats to all.
Daren Blomquist: Winner (Parvati)
Andrea Moffat: Runner-up (Amanda, aka "choker")
Dan Franklin: Third Place (Cirie, aka "so close")
Eric Wood: Fourth Place (Natalie, aka "multi-layered")
Megan Wood: Fifth Place (Erik, aka "dunce cap")
Alison Gentry: Sixth Place (Alexis, aka "popular pick")
Kelly McAllister: Seventh Place (James, aka "analogy king")
Mirranda Meacham: Eighth Place (Jason, aka "not the brightest light bulb")
Angela Stump: Ninth Place (Ozzy, aka "dork")
Dan Stump: Tenth Place (Eliza, aka "wide-eyes")
Karina Franklin: Eleventh Place (Amy, aka "machete massacre")
Curtis Lillie: Twelfth Place (Tracy, aka "she got game")
Kathy (unpicked)
Greg Moffat: Fourteenth Place (Chet, aka "my foot hurts")
Dave McAllister: Fifteenth Place (Jonathan, aka "what could have been?")
Rich Stafford: Sixteenth Place (Joel, aka "still can't believe Chet beat me")
Sarah Blomquist: Seventeenth Place (Mikey, aka "overplayed his game")
Ruth King: Eighteenth Place (Yau Man, aka "can't fly under the radar again")
Ami McNay: Ninteenth Place (Mary, aka "guilt by association")

Great season. Thanks to all.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Megan's Run Ends with the Dumbest Move in Survivor History

So, these past four episodes have to be the best run in the history of the show. First, Ozzy gets blindsided. Then, after watching Ozzy hold onto the hidden immunity idol, Jason holds onto it and gets voted out. Then Amanda plays the idol when she would have been voted out. But this one tops them all. Amazing.
Throughout the show, people kept talking about how naive Erik was. I thought they were just talking in terms of experiencing new things. When Amanda got him to take her on the reward and send Parv to exile, I thought, "Wow, Erik really isn't very bright." But the final move took the cake. UNBELIEVABLE! I could not stop laughing. I loved that they showed the votes of all four girls. I loved when Amanda just couldn't think of anything to say. I loved that every jury member saw exactly what was happening as soon as Erik gave up immunity. I love Jeff'w words: "That's what we like to call a life lesson." That was absolutely awesome. I also love that Erik's response afterwards was that those girls really pulled one over on him. His response, of course, should have been, "I am the bigger idiot in the history of Survivor."
That was great.
Sorry, Megan.
That was just stinking great, though. Awesome.

So, girls have pretty much ruled this season. I think it is appropriate that the Final Four is all women. And, as much as I have maligned Parv and Nat, I think these are the deserving four. They all ran circles around the guys. Impressive.

So, we lost one Wood. Eric wins the battle over Megan. I hope there is still harmony in the home.

The Final Four is Andrea Moffat, Eric Wood, Daren Blomquist, and Dan Franklin. Andrea picked first. I picked tenth. Eric picked 16th. Daren picked Parvati dead last, at 18th.

A note: Andrea and I are both in the Final Four the second straight season. More impressive, however, our picks are both in their second Final Four. My girl Cirie finished fourth when she was on Survivor Exile Island. There was a tie and she lost the fire-making contest. Amanda, of course, finished third last season. She did well, but then tanked the Final Tribal Council.

A woman will win Survivor this season. Men have won the last four seasons. It is time.

So, it seems most obvious that Natalie is on the hot seat. However, Amanda is probably the other one in trouble. She is the odds-on favorite if she makes it to the end. If she does not win immunity, Parv and Cirie might be wise to vote her out.
In my opinion, Parv is the only one who is certain to make it to the Final 3. I just don't see any reason why she would be voted out. However, if Natalie wins immunity, Amanda and Parv may stick together and vote of my girl Cirie. Hopefully not.

This has turned out to be one of my favorite seasons. Remember that the finale will be on Sunday night at 8:00pm. I wish we could all watch it together. Enjoy.

Friday, May 2, 2008

More Injuries, and a Successful Use of the H.I.I.

Well, farewell to Kelly McAllister and Alison Gentry this week. Kelly lost James to his finger injury. I was a little skeptical on it, but when he showed up at Tribal Council with an IV, I thought that pretty much validated the situation. Kelly joins her husband Dave, who lost Jonathan to his knee injury. Neither McAllister was voted out. Sorry guys. Tough luck. On the bright side, James was probably next to go anyway. I think he knew that, and that is why he wasn't too broken up over it.
The real champion of this week was, of course, Amanda. The curse of the Hidden Immunity Idol finally ends. She looked like she had a lot of fun with her acting. Pouting and complaining about Erik, and then whipping out the idol. It was great to see the instantaneous celebration of the jury and the horror on the faces of Erik, Alexis, and Natalie. Especially Alexis and Natalie as they waited to find out which one of them was going home.
Alexis was pick #2. So I like to think of this last episode as #1 vs. #2. It was the BSC Title game of Survivor. The top pick, Amanda, triumphed over the second pick, Alexis. And Alexis was a sought-after pick with several of us, myself included. She was my top choice. Thanks, Alison. I get to go at least one step further. But congrats on finishing in 6th place on your first go-round.
The other major winner of the week was Megan, with her #5 pick Erik. He won immunity again, and he may very well win out. Having the game shortened with James going out eliminates one more opportunity for the girls to get Erik out. He is in a pretty good position. He could even be a swing vote this next time, seeing as there are only five left.
Speaking of the final five, major props to the Wood family. Eric (Natalie) and Megan (Erik) have made the final 5. It seems unlikely that at least one of them won't make it to the final tribal council. Way to go. You are the top couple.

So, here is how I see things. I will rank the most likely to win at this point:
5. Parvati. It is not that I think she hasn't played well. She has been fine. I just don't see her having any jury votes. Eliza, Ozzy, and James are all ticked at her. Not much love with Jason or Alexis. I don't see who votes for her unless Amanda ends up on the jury (without being betrayed by Parv).
4. Natalie. The only reason I put her above Parvati is that there is one jury vote for Nat right now in Alexis. You know that Jason is not voting for her unless he has a MAJOR change of heart. I can't see who else would vote for her. Sorry, Eric, but I am going to stand by saying that neither Parv or Nat can win. But congrats to Daren and Eric. Daren picked Parv with the final 18th pick. Eric picked Natalie with pick #16. To make it this far is a big accomplishment. Congrats.
3. Cirie. I think it will be tough for Cirie to win this one. If she can go up against Parvati and Natalie, she may pull it off. Otherwise she will have a major uphill battle.
2. Erik. He probably needs to win out to make it, but he could end up with votes from just about everyone as long as he doesn't go up against Amanda. He has a great chance right now, but he has to find a way to get Amanda out.
1. Amanda. She has the inside track now. I don't even think another awful performance at final tribal could keep her from winning if she makes it to the end. Did you see the jury celebrate when she pulled with old "I'm rubber and you're glue, the votes bounce off of me and stick to you" move on Alexis. Amanda has Ozzy and James for sure. She also has a decent chance with Jason and Eliza. If Amanda can avoid getting voted out in the next two tribal councils, she will win.

So, are we finally done with the hidden immunity idol? I hope so. That said, though, the last three tribal councils have ruled!

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Mirranda's Lovable Dopey Goes Home

Well, you can't say that this hasn't been a fun season to watch. Two weeks in a row a player who has a hidden immunity idol is blindsided. Classic. I think all of us enjoyed that. All of us except for Mirranda Meacham, who finishes in 8th place on her first go-round in Survivor Pick 'em.
Jason has to be the most clueless contestant of all time. Poor guy. Just got abused by Natalie in that episode. He finds the REAL idol, but chooses not to play it. I think my favorite part was the reaction by James.

Interesting Happenings
1. So, anonymous Natalie had a coming out party. It turns out that she really likes the B word. She likes to apply it to herself and to guys. She also likes to use over-the-top analogies, such as, "I'm going to floss with his jugular." Hmmm. I think she just spent so much time doing absolutely nothing that she had to break out and go all the way with this play. Now, it was a good play for the team, but maybe a costly play for her. If she is one of the final three, and they are all girls, who is Jason going to hold responsible for his blindside? Clearly Natalie will not get that vote.
2. James is injured. We'll see what happens with that. More importantly, he has retained his Garden of Eden terminology. Calling Parvati an Apple Chewer was great stuff. Constantly talking about how they could all be naked and happy, but Parvati had to eat the apple.
3. I also love that all the fall-out of the Ozzy blindside is falling on Parvati. Cirie has options.
4. The two players who I have consistently said cannot win (Natalie and Parvati) are in good positions. I can't imagine that at least one of them will not be in the Final 3. Hmmm. I guess we'll see just how much I know. And Alexis was barely in that episode. Hmmm. Getting interesting.
5. I have to mention to opening recap when Probst said that Parvati blindsided Ozzy by recruiting Natalie, Alexis, and Cirie. Then they showed a scene of Parvati talking about her decision to turn on Ozzy. That scene, however, was after the conversation with the girls. And it was Cirie who initiated that conversation. Parvati still hadn't made up her mind until later on whether or not she would be in on it. I know I am biased, but those are the facts. I think they just emphasized Parv's role in it so that everyone would know why Amanda and James were so upset with her.

Congrats
1. To the Final 7. Eric, Megan, Kelly, Daren, and Alison are first timers to get this far in the game. Andrea and I return for the second time.
2. Once again, congrats to the Wood family. Erik won immunity in a nail-biter with James. Natalie is still in, and seems to be in a good position.

Status
I want to see at least one more major shift. I am not against it being an all-female final 5, but I want to see one more twist happen.

With 7 contestants left, I will go ahead and name who I see as the three most likely to be voted out.
3. Parvati. She could be in trouble and the Favs could turn on her. Real possibility. James, Erik, Amanda, and Cirie could get her out.
2. Erik. I think he is a bigger immunity threat than James, but we'll see.
1. James. Nothing that anyone else can't see. He seems to be the next natural one to go.

I have to say that I can also see a scenario in which Natalie or Alexis could go next week. Cirie could make a move on them, not wanting to go up against Fans in the finals.

The only two that I think are safe for sure next week are Cirie and Amanda. That certainly could change.

Does it make me a nerd to mention this?
Amanda has now played almost two full seasons of Survivor and she has never received a vote. Wow.

See you next week.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Ang Suffers the Greatest Blindside Ever

Well, Ang Stump is the victim of, in my opinion, the greatest tribal council in the history of Survivor. Ozzy is voted off in 9th place, becoming the second member of the jury, and leaving with a hidden immunity idol in his possession.
So, I gotta say. . .

You know it's coming. . .

My girl rocks! Engineering the greatest surprise in Survivor history, I think Cirie may have just become the greatest schemer of all time. That was great. Karina and I were yelling as they read the votes. Dave McAllister called me right after it happened and said that he and Kelly were doing the same. Amazing.

So, sorry Ang. Dan and Ang, husband and wife, voted out back to back, and becoming the first two members of the jury.

Memorable parts of the episode:
Jason being mocked as making the dumbest move in Survivor history, and then Ozzy admitting that he made an incredibly dumb move.
Jason making that really, really dumb move.
The looks on the faces of Amanda, James, Erik, and especially Eliza when the vote went down. Priceless.
Alexis being super pissed when she went out of the challenge, but still did not get any food.
My girl Cirie rocking the house. Gotta love her.

Some congratulations:
1. To Mirranda for staying in when her Jason was the primary target on back to back weeks. Nice job.
2. To Eric and Megan Wood for being the last couple standing with Natalie and Erik.
3. To Daren Blomquist for making the final 8 when he picked Parvati dead last.

Now that we are down to only 8 people left, I will give the four safest, and the four most vulnerable:
4 Safest:
4. Alison. Alexis is probably okay, unless Amanda makes them vote her out as a good faith move.
3. Andrea. Amanda seems safe, even though she was blindsided.
2. Me. I hope. Cirie has an amazing ability to orchestrate amazing plays and then fade right back in.
1. E-Wood. Natalie is off the radar.
Most Vulnerable:
4. Daren. Parvati has the numbers, but she is seen as the biggest traitor. Could turn on her somehow.
3. Megan. Erik is certainly in danger, but not as much as numbers 1 and 2.
2. Mirranda. Even though Jason was on the right side on that twist, he is still the biggest immunity threat.
1. Kelly. James is the big bad stud, and has a target on him with Ozzy gone.

I actually think Erik and Jason are much bigger immunity threats than James is. He is great in the team challenges, but has yet to show himself great in the individual ones.

I still think Natalie and Parvati are the only two remaining players with no chance of winning. Natalie has done nothing impressive, and Parvati is not very liked. I will not put him on the list, but honorable mention goes out to Jason. He is not liked at all. I think his chances of winning are EXTREMELY slim. But if he makes it to the end (by rattling off immunities) he may win the default vote.

Great stuff. Woooooo!!!!!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Check it Out

Special thanks to Ruth King for identifying a fun Survivor site: http://www.ew.com/ew/video/survivor.

On this site, two guys from Entertainment Weekly interview the latest cast-off, and they also sometimes do a quick parody of something that happened during the previous episode. Each interview is only 6-8 minutes, so you can check it out quick.

Suggested highlights:
The interview with Jonathan and Chet. Watch for Jonathan's physical reaction when he is called a crybaby (his hand in particular), and his head when Chet is explaining his injury.
The bit about Erik and Ozzy on the interview with Tracy.

Anyway, fun stuff.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Dan Stump Heads up the Jury

Well, Eliza is out. It was fun to watch. Her conversation with Jason was classic. It shows just how amazing it was that Jason believed that he had the hidden immunity idol. Eliza didn't believe it for even a second. For a player as physically gifted as Jason is. . .wow, he is spacey. Funny stuff.
So, we are now in jury phase. Congrats to Dan for making the jury, especially when your pick was so late.
In fact, a recap of who is still left:
Pick #1: Andrea Moffat (Amanda)
Pick #2: Alison Gentry (Alexis)
Pick #4: Angela Stump (Ozzy)
Pick #5: Megan Wood (Erik)
Pick #6: Mirranda Meacham (Jason)
Pick #10: Dan Franklin (Cirie)
Pick #13: Kelly McAllister (James)
Pick #16: Eric Wood (Natalie)
Pick #18: Daren Blomquist (Parvati)
As you can see, we have a chunk of early picks, but also several late ones.

Recap
So, Jason's immunity victory was pretty impressive. In fact, I was WAY impressed with Jason, Ozzy, and James, and how long they stayed in it. Ozzy looked outright ticked when he didn't win. Jason not only beat Ozzy in a challenge, but he beat him in a challenge that seemed to be tailor-made for Ozzy.
Jason's victory allowed for the great fake idol moment. I loved that Eliza totally outed Ozzy right there. Nice job. Way to go out shooting.
Alexis had a busy episode. Lots of interviews, flirting with Ozzy, and, my favorite, referring to Eliza by saying, "She played well." I loved that Jeff called her on it. And then Alexis just said, "Oh. Sorry." That was really funny to me.
Amanda does not like Alexis. Now, is Amanda more upset that Alexis is hording in on her alliance or on her man? This could make it so much easier for Amanda to betray Ozzy.

Predictions
I still think that Natalie and Parvati have no chance of winning it all (apologies to Daren and E-Wood). I see everyone as having a chance.
Jason may be able to dominate immunities that same way Ozzy did, if Ozzy ends up getting voted out.
James and Ozzy will have a conversation about playing hidden immunity idols.

Who's Out Next: 5 Most Likely
Since there are only 9 left, the top five becomes more and more of a possibility.
5. Parvati. I don't think this will happen, but Amanda is mad at her, and could end up ousting her. Almost zero chance, though.
4. Alexis. Still in a little danger, but Jason is now a bigger target.
3. Cirie. She is scheming again (more on this below). This could bite her if she is found out, or if Ozzy plays the idol and turns it on her.
2. Ozzy. Cirie may be looking to nail him. Bad episode for him this time. He lost an immunity challenge that was right up his ally. He flirted with Alexis and now Amanda is a woman scorned. Then he was outed for having the idol. Who knows?
1. Jason. Maybe he will be preserved, but he has one immunity victory, and no alliance.

See you all next week.

By the way, with the jury starting at 10th place, we are clearly in for another Final Three, as opposed to a Final Two.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Karina Goes Home on Her Birthday

Well, today is Karina's 29th birthday and she celebrates with her Ami getting voted off. I don't know if I am alone in this, but I saw this coming from the firs scene of the episode. It seemed pretty clear that it was going to go down how it did. It was still fun to watch.

Glad we're getting to the merge. I am tired of watching Malakal lose.

Favorite parts of this past episode.
5. Ami, even after being voted off, seeming to still be under the impression that she was trustworthy.
4. Jason not being sent to exile. The challenge was about balance. It is SOOOOO obvious that he should have been sent away. Alexis? Huh? And what does Jason do? He wins the challenge. Congrats, Mirranda.
3. James opening beer bottles with his teeth. That was great.
2. Ozzy finding out that his fake idol had been taken.
And number one by far. . .
1. Psycho Ami thanking Jason while holding a machete over her shoulder. Anyone else have flashes of horror movies while watching this scene. Wow, she was scary. I think Wes Craven needs to give her a call now that she is off the show. That scene was an absolute classic to me. No joke, one of my top 5 Survivor moments ever! Hysterical.

Merge Coming!!!
Congrats to the top 10, who, according to the preview for next week's episode, have made the merge. We have 6 Favs and 4 Fans. 6 Gals and 4 Guys. More importantly, we have. . .
3 First-timers:
1. Alison has made it with her Alexis. And from the preview it looks like Alexis might be targeted. Did I say she would win? I meant she would finish 10th. Oops.
2. Mirrands has made it with her Jason. Great in challenges, not too bright. More on this later.
3. Kelly has made it with her James. It will be interesting to see what happens with him. Will he become a target? Will he win any immunities?
2 Other First-time Merge Makers:
4. Megan missed the merge last season with Aaron, but she fights her way in this time with Erik. he pulled it off. Major props.
5. Daren makes it in with Parvati. Who knows? Maybe this girl will pull a power play.
5 Back-to-Back Merge Makers:
6. E-Wood. Last season he made it with J.R. I predict that you will get closer than 9th place this season with Natalie.
7. Dan Stump. Although I don't know if he qualifies as a merge maker from last season since he had the field. Two of his did not make the merge (wrestler lady and the teacher), but two did (P.G. and Courtney). Either way, congrats on riding Eliza to the merge.
8. Angela Stump. Last season she finished in 8th with Frosti. This time she comes to the merge as the favorite with Ozzy. Will he run the immunity table again? Will others vote him out the first chance they get?
9. Andrea. Both times with Amanda. And Amanda is, once again, in great shape. She is a good player. I think she must be the only player to go so long without ever receiving a vote. She never got one last season, and she still hasn't got one this season.
10. Me, of course. I won last year with Todd, and now I am following Cirie. This is where she has potential to shine. I want to see her shake some things up.

Next Week
I am looking forward to the merge. It seems like things should be five on five. Cirie, Ozzy, Amanda, Parvati, and James Vs. Erik, Natalie, Alexis, Jason, and Eliza. Who knows, though?
Did you all see the preview with Eliza's conversation with Jason?
E: That's not the hidden immunity idol.
J: Yeah it is.
E: No, it's not.
J: Why not?
E: Because it can't be.
J: Why not?
E: Because it's a stick.
Oh, that was classic. Can't wait to watch it in its full context.

Top Five in Danger to be Voted Off Next
5. James. Don't think it will happen, but it could if that girl power thing comes about.
4. Erik. If he turns back to the Fans, Ozzy could get mad and take him out.
3. Cirie. If the fans all choose someone to vote for, it could end up being her. Easy target.
2. Jason. He is the most skilled immunity guy on the fans.
1. Alexis. Looks like Amanda is jealous. We will see.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

A Week Off

Unless I am mistaken, there will be no Survivor this week. Again, this is due to March Madness. I, for one, am more than willing to make the sacrifice. Go Bruins! Don't stop my heart like you guys did against A&M.
I thought I would take this opportunity to handicap the rest of this season.

Players who Will Not Win
This is a bold move, but I am willing to go out on a limb.
1. Dan Stump. Sorry, I just don't see a scenario in which people vote for Eliza.
2. Daren Blomquist. Parvati has really done nothing to deserve to win. If she gets to the end with James, he will beat her in a landslide.
3. Eric Wood. Natalie has been more than anonymous this season.
4. Karina Franklin. I would be willing to waver on this much more than the others. I suppose there is some scenario in which Amy could win, but she has not done much so far.
The exception to this is, if three of these four women make up the final three, one of them will have to win.

Players who Can Win
1. Alison Gentry. Alexis is mentally solid and very likable. She has not done any major moves, but she could easily get brought along and then dethrone the power players.
2. Andrea Moffat. Amanda is smart. I just cringe, though, to think of her at another final tribal. She so tanked it last time.
3. Megan Wood. Erik is athletic and could win some challenges. He just has to make it through this next vote, and then get limped in with the Favs.

Players who Deserve to Win
1. Angela Stump. Ozzy is the star of this season so far. With his mad skills, his alliance, and his immunity idol, he will be hard to beat.
2. Mirranda Meacham. Jason is not on Ozzy's level, but he is great in the challenges and a nice enough guy. Not too bright, though.
3. Kelly McAllister. James is so good around camp, and so good in the challenges that he qualifies as a deserving player.
4. Dan Franklin. You knew this was coming, and I dare you to disagree. Cirie has been masterful in positioning herself in this game. I don't know how much longer she can go without being exposed and voted off in a landslide, but I hope she can take it all the way.

Interesting Notes
There are eleven constestants remains. 7 women, 4 men. This gives the women a chance to pull one over on the men. While this is often talked about, this has never happened in any season.
Also, there are 7 Favs and 4 Fans. But when the merge happens, will the Favs reunite, or will new alliances hold firm?

Over/Under
Jason's final position: 9
Erik's final position: 10
Alexis' final position: 4
Amanda's final position: 2
Ozzy's final position: 2
James' final position: 5
Natalie's final position: 6
Eliza's final position: 5
Parvati's final position: 4
Cirie's final position: 4
Amy's final position: 6
Number of individual immunities that Ozzy wins: 5
Number of fans in the final 3: 1
Number of women in the final 3: 2

There's my take. Feel free to give yours.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Curtis Leaves the Show

Well, Tracey had a good run. She was a much better player than I thought she would be. But she just had some bad luck (the Joel blindside, the switched tribes, Chet leaving the game). Sorry, Curtis. Thanks for joining us. I feel bad that you lost Tracey right after your long comment about how pleased you were with her. Bummer.
Oh, and we also lost my sister Ami for the second time. She picked up Kathleen after Mary got voted off. I felt a little bad for Kathy, but not too bad. It always kind of irks me when someone can't handle it mentally. A month is a long time to be away from family, but it is very doable. Well, anyway, she's home now and happy.
So, no video at all of Jason and Tracey on Exile Island. I guess it just loses its interest when both the real and the fake Immunity Idol are found.
So, not much action as far as the switching of power positions.

And now for a new section called. . .

How About
How about the not-so-bright Jason helping bring Airai back from a big deficit in the puzzle challenge.
How about Erik as Ozzy's protege.
How about Amy's super-complicated master plan to get Ozzy off, but it didn't work.
How about my girl Cirie being able to sniff out anything weird going on when Tribal Council is approaching.
How about my girl Cirie having the best line of the episode: "When Erik speaks Ozzy's name, star dust comes out of his mouth." And also, speaking of Erik, "If Ozzy proposed marriage. . .done deal!"

Top 5 people most likely to be voted of next:
5. James. If his tribe finally loses and if the girls all turn on him to get him off before the merge. Not likely, but possible.
4. Jason. Same scenario as James.
3. Ozzy. Not likely, but possible. They keep making it look like he's going to go.
2. Amy. Malakal will probably lose again, and they may want to keep Erik around.
1. Erik. Last remaining fan on Malakal. Also, it looks like he gets hurt this next episode. That could cost him.

I thought Tracey would be the first member of the jury. She was voted off in 12th place. Lately when they have started with 20 players, they have started the jury at 12th place. I guess they are probably starting at 10th place, like last season. Either way, we are getting close to the jury being in. Congrats to the top 11:
Karina Franklin
Dan Franklin
Angela Stump
Dan Stump
Megan Wood
Eric Wood
Daren Blomquist
Andrea Moffat
Kelly McAllister
Mirranda Meacham
Alison Gentry

P.S. My conspiracy theory on Alexis is still alive. Again, she was interviewed this episode. They always seem to work her in.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Wednesday Survivor

Don't know if any of you saw, but Survivor will be on Wednesday night this week. Why, you ask?
MARCH MADNESS!!!!!
If you don't know what March Madness is, it is the college basketball tournament. It begins Thursday night. UCLA all the way, baby.
Anyway, I had to comment on the comments. I have to say, some of the comments left of these posts have been top notch. When I first saw Mirranda's comment about Chet looking down at his foot after Jeff announced about Jonathan, I about fell out of my chair. When I was reading Megan's comment to Karina, I could barely get through it coherently because I was laughing so hard. I loved Chet's hypothetical questions at the final tribal council. I am laughing now, just remembering it. If you didn't see them, read the comments on the previous post. They are way better than the post itself.
Anyway, props to the Survivor of the Week: My sister Ami, who lives in Atlanta and survived the tornado. Now let's see if Crazy Lady can survive her own meltdown.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Dave Walks off into the Sunset, Greg Finally Goes Home

Well, finally watched the episode this afternoon. There were some nervous moments. When Amy started talking about taking out Cirie, I thought it was over. Even if they had taken out Ozzy, it would have pretty much been over for my gal. Whew. Relief.
Greg, sorry that you are out. That said, I am not sorry that Chet is out. It just would not be right for him to make the merge. Glad he finally just called it quits. He just didn't have it. 'Nuff said.
I have to admit that they had me. I thought they would vote off Ozzy. Tracy was obviously trying to get him to waste the idol.
Man, Tracy is good. I like that gal.
Amy missed her chance (not through any fault of her own).
I thought James was in trouble too. If his tribe loses, he is very vulnerable.
Does Jason really think that he has the immunity idol? Priceless! I hope he ends up playing it.
The real tragedy of this episode was that we lost Dave/Jonathan. As I already mentioned, Jonathan was not only my favorite returning survivor, but also one of my all-time favs. He is the last person who would ever quit. You knew it was over, though, when they said the words, "could be fatal." Ang, can you confirm that he did the right thing? Brutal. I was so, so bummed. The game just won't be the same without him.

Who's Stock is Up
1. Ang. Ozzy's stock is always up these days.
2. Alison. I may be a conspiracy theorist, but they always seems to work in an Alexis interview, even when she does not do much in the episode. Coincidence? Hmmm.
3. Kelly. James may be vulnerable, but you have to give him props. He won that immunity challenge for them. He is awesome.
4. Dan Stump. Eliza seems to be in absolutely no danger. She is in a great position. The tribe switch really helped her. That said, she will never win. Way too annoying. Maybe Cirie will, out of the goodness of her heart, take Eliza to the finals with her.

Whose Stock Went Down
1. Mirranda. Actually, Jason is in no danger at all. At the same time, he has to take a hit for falling for the hidden immunity idol. I can only hope that it will play into things.
2. Curtis. Tracy is awesome, but she is likely to be next. In fact, very likely. If Malakal had voted off Ozzy, they would have NO chance of winning any challenges. As it is, though, they have been getting creamed with him. Losing Chet will help (sorry Greg). We'll see. I hope Tracy can stick around.
That's it.

Top 5 vulnerable people next week:
5. Eliza. Probably not, but if her tribe loses, she could be voted off by the fans as the weakest non-fan.
4. Erik. Again, probably not, but he is a man without much help, and his tribe has been losing.
3. James. As stated, if his tribe loses, the fans could vote him out as their biggest threat.
2. Kathleen. From the preview for next week, it looks like she is cracking up. If her tribe continues their winning ways, though, she'll be fine.
1. Tracy. Her tribe keeps losing, and she seems to be next. Bummer that she lost Chet (although I am SOOOOO glad Chet is gone; no offense).

Isn't it great that when you say "no offense," you can then say whatever you want?
"No offense, but that is the ugliest haircut I've ever seen."
"Oh, none taken. Thanks for noticing."
Odd.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Late Post

Just a note to you diehards. I will be on Prayer Retreat for my seminary class on (you guessed it) Prayer from Wednesday night until Friday afternoon. So, I will be a little delayed in posting about the episode on Thursday night, because I probably will not watch it until Friday night.
So, Dave, Rich, anyone else, don't do any spoiler text messages. That's just cruel.
My prediction of who could be in trouble this next week:
1. Greg. Chet is always in trouble. He is soooo bad. Sorry.
2. Karina. In the preview for the next episode, it looked like Amy was starting to flip. That could backfire.
3. Curtis. When it looked like Amy was flipping, it looked like she was getting tight with Tracey. That might make Tracey a target.
4. Ami. Kathleen is always vulnerable, just like Chet.
5. Megan. Erik is in trouble after Joel get ousted.
6. Dan Stump. Eliza is weak, so she is always vulnerable.
7. Dave. Unfortuntaly, Jonathan may be faced with a choice between staying on the show or continuing to live. Bad luck.
I think that's it. I would be surprised if anyone outisde of these 7 got voted off next. Could happen, though. Who knows?

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Rich, Don't Say I Didn't Warn You

So, Joel goes home. While I am sort of torn over Chet sticking around (it just doesn't seem right), I think there is great justice about Joel getting voted off. Man, the look on Tracey's face was priceless. Almost as priceless as the look on Joel's when he saw his name for the third time. Totally shocked. It is rare that you hear someone admit that they are genuinely embarassed. Joel was genuinely embarassed about the fact that Chet outlasted him. Wow.
Rich, I tried to warn you about the huge strong guys. It's okay, though. Fun while it lasted.
So, let me hear it. How about my girl! Cirie is a master at making things happen and then fading back in. She has controlled two of the three votes in which she was involved, and yet she has not put herself out there as the one controlling things. She is amazing. Love my pick.
Good Episode
1. Andrea. Amanda got on the same team as Ozzy, which was huge for her. Then she caught a shark. Nice.
2. Me. I have already sung the praises of Cirie. She saw it coming that she needed to swing things before she lost her chance.
3. Dan Stump. Jonathan's injury may give Eliza some room to be something other than the weakest player on her tribe.
4. Mirranda. Jason was in trouble on his tribe, so it is a good thing he got mixed up.
5. Curtis. Great moment for Tracey to see Joel ousted. Also, she didn't slip into a vulnerable position. Cirie helped her out.
Bad Episode
1. Dave. Jonathan's injury may really take him down a level. He may have trouble participating. That is a shame because he is such a great player, and so much fun to watch.
2. Megan. Erik is now in trouble on his new tribe.
3. Daren. Not really. Parvati is fine. The only problem is that James might move on now that she has that HUGE far lip.

As for Chet, he sort of had a good episode, but on principle I refuse to give him any props. He is being carried by people who simply want to use his vote. He is a filler. Sorry, Greg. Although your "gay guy = jury" thing may end up coming true. He will probably be in the final 12. He may even go further. He is such a non-threat that, if he makes the merge, he could stick around. Someone need to vote him off mercifully.

Next week should be fun. Hope Jonathan survives his injury. Hope Malakal can put together a win despite still having Chet. Hope Cirie takes this thing down.

Friday, February 29, 2008

Oh No! Not Again, Sarah

For the second season in a row, Sarah Blomquist gets an early exit. Tough break, Sar. Last time you picked Dave. He was great the first episode, and then he became a total spaz. This time you got the hard luck pick. Often there is a good player who gets ousted early, and this time it was Mikey B. On that note, thanks for picking him. If he was still around at #10, I definitely would have picked him up.
Who Had a Good Episode?
5. Kelly McAllister. Not much, but James did solve that puzzle. Good job.
4. Mirranda Meacham. Jason is the Fan's version of Ozzy in the challenges. In other words, he is the poor man's Ozzy. That is not a rip on Jason. Anyone's version of Ozzy is the poor man's Ozzy. It is like a high school basketball team saying, "This is our Lebron." That said, Jason is great in the challenges. He is valuable. This episode was tough for him, though, as he got outvoted at tribal. I liked his final plea, though. "Fans, Survivors, Countrymen, lend me your ears. Vote out Chet. He is the weakest player EVER!!!!" Too bad it didn't work.
3. Rich Stafford. I thought the tribe was stupid to vote out Mikey, but it was a good move for Joel. No reason to keep an enemy around.
2. Curtis Lillie. How 'bout Tracy! She is a player. She swung that vote. She just became one of my favorite fans.
1. Angela Stump. It is not even close when you ask, "Who had the best episode?" Our girl Alexis said it. Ozzy is the best physical competitor EVER on Survivor. Apologies to Terry, Colby, Lex, Boston Rob, and James. Man, Ozzy just carried them in that reward challenge. I was just laughing, watching what he did. And, once he went off to Exile Island, was there any real doubt that he would find the Immunity Idol? Not on my part. Nice. Ozzy is now the frontrunner, at least in my opinion.
Who Had a Rough Episode?
3. Dan Stump. Eliza is on the outs and she is sick. On top of that, she is taking a beating in the challenges. First she gets thrown from the cart in the first episode. Then she gets bonked on the head by Erik. This episode she got pinned by the Fans in the immunity challenge. . .and they yelled at her about it. On the bright side, she did help solve two puzzles. If you saw Eliza on Vanuatu, then you saw the real Eliza come out this episode. When she said, "You know, this isn't really motivating me to do well in the challenge," and her eyes got all big. Classic Eliza.
2. Eric Wood. It is not that anything happened with Natalie in this episode. It is just that nothing has happened with her ever. She is non-existent. Not a good sign for her to go far.
1. Greg Moffat. Greg, it is not that Chet is the weakest player this season. It is that he is the worst player in the history of Survivor. No offense, but he is terrible in the challenges, terrible socially, and he has no strategy. This episode he got saved by Tracy, and I don't even know that he wanted to be saved. If he is not the worst player ever, then he has to be the worst player to survive TWO tribal councils. Man!

So, if you saw the preview for next week, then you know that there will be a tribal mix-up. Rich, Ruth, did I not call it?
This mix-up has potential to most benefit:
1. Curtis (Tracy). Fresh start.
2. Dave (Jonathan). Fresh start, new allies.
3. Mirranda (Jason). He was a bit on the outs, and now he will be solid.
4. Karina (Amy). She has not yet found an alliance. Now she will have a chance.
This mix-up had potential to most hurt:
1. Rich (Joel). He was in such a powerful position in his tribe. Now he could be vulnerable as a big threat.
2. Andrea (Amanda). She may be fine, but she also may not have the protection of Ozzy. If she does, she'll be fine.
3. Ami (Kathleen). She will likely be the weakest on her tribe, unless she is still with Chet.
4. Greg (Chet). When his new tribe first loses, he will be the obvious choice, and Tracy may not be around to save him.

Dan's Hopes for the Mix-up
1. James and Parvati get split up. Enough of that.
2. Jonathan and Cirie are still on the same tribe. It would be great to see them continue to co-exist.
3. Joel and Chet end up on the same tribe. Joel must be forced to live with his decision to keep Chet around.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Most Deserving

The whole Yau Man thing had me thinking. While I was not really rooting for him, who doesn't love Yau? And I have to admit that part of me wanted him to win because he is probably the most deserving player never to win. He finished fourth in Fiji, but he would have cleaned up at Final Tribal Council if he had made it. In my opinion, his problem was not that he trusted Dreams. His problem was that he chose not to pressure Dreams. In Survivor, you always put on pressure. People get annoyed, but they end up doing what you say. Usually.
That said, I think I would officially give Yau Man the title of Most Deserving Player Never to Win. But I will go ahead and give my top five runners up.
5. Colby (Outback, 2nd place). Colby would be higher except for the fact that I think he got beat fair in square by Tina. She played great. Colby, though, also played great strategically, and he dominated physically.
4. Terry/Cirie (Exile Island, 3rd and 4th place). Terry dominated in the challenges and Cirie dominated at the tribals. Terry would have won if he had been able to pull off the final immunity. Cirie would have won if she had not lost that tiebreaker.
3. Lex (Africa, 3rd place). While Ethan may have still beat Lex if they had gone head to head, Lex still ran the game. He controlled it pretty much from the start.
2. Kathy (Marquesas, 3rd place). She got betrayed at the final challenge. She would have swept final tribal EASILY.
1. Rob C. (Amazon, 3rd place). Rob switched alliances again and again throughout his season, and yet still was always in control. . .until the final vote. He was fun to watch.
Honorable mentions: Ozzy (Cook Islands), Rafe (Guatemala), Johnny Fairplay (Pearl Islands), Boston Rob (All-Stars).
Yes, I have watched a lot of Survivor. I think next time I may have to give my list of the most undeserving winners. There are certainly a few.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Farewell to Ruth King

Well, Yau Man went. Ruth King, who picked 11th, had Yau. From the beginning, he was the only one she wanted. Sorry. Most of all, sorry that it was my girl who was the culprit. This will only further the gap between Ruth and I when it comes to Survivor. She disliked my boy Todd last season, while I road him all the way to victory. Now my girl Cirie is responsible for the ouster of her all-time fav. Sorry.
So, let's give some props to the stars of this episode:
1. James (Kelly McAllister), for getting mad when Erik threw Amanda, and for kicking butt in the reward challenge.
2. Jason (Mirranda Meacham), for actually talking, and then for carrying the Fans to immunity.
3. Jonathan (Dave McAllister), for continuing to be Jonathan and for calling out Cirie's power play and making her a target.
4. Joel (Rich Stafford), for continuing to be the main character on the Fans.
5. Cirie (me), for taking over the game for this episode.

It sounded like Yau Man was scheduled to go to Exile Island next, and that is why Cirie wanted him off. Interesting.
Also, did Amy and Eliza jump ship on Jonathan? Rough times for my favorite.

So, next week looks like a face-off.
We have Sarah vs. Rich (Mikey vs. Joel), and Dan vs. Dave (Cirie vs. Jonathan). My money is on Cirie, and not only because she is my pick. Two people from Jonathan's season are still around, and both seriously dislike him. Meanwhile, Cirie has no one from her previous season. Only Jonathan has an axe to grind with her.
My money is also on Mikey over Joel. I may be wrong, but I think Mikey can sway people against him. That said, I am hoping for Fans to go to tribal, because I think Mikey vs. Joel would be worth seeing.

These tribal councils have been interesting so far!

Congrats to the Final Seventeen. Quite an accomplishment.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Notes on Some Women

A few notes.

First of all, sorry to Faith Hardin. I would have invited you to join our pool if I would have remembered that you had commented occasionally on former Survivor posts. Consider yourself invited to Survivor 17: Sandy, Oregon. I heard that the contestants will have to see if they can survive without any street lights. Or ir might be Survivor SoCal, where the winner will be the one who can survivor rising home costs in my beloved homeland. Either way, sorry for not including you.
Secondly, Faith's comment on the last post brought up something interesting. Now, I thought I had found this great diamond in the rough by being high on Alexis. I thought she would be a great dark horse pick, and I thought she might even still be around at number 10. Alison snatched her up. Then, my sister Ami mentioned that Alexis was her first pick. Now Faith says that she would have picked Alexis. Hmmm. Four of us are high on this gal. Anyone else want to jump on the bandwagon.
By the way, all that said, I am still sticking with my girl Cirie. But, for the record:
Alexis was my first pick.
Jonathan is my favorite.
Cirie is my girl.
Finally, as you know, my sister Ami was blindsided last week when her pick Mary was voted off. Ami asked if she could snatch up Kathleen and stay in it (at least for one more week). I thought this sounded fine. And, for the record, I would have done the same for any of you. So, Ami has Kathleen.
Now, no one really has the right to complain about Ami getting a second chance. The fact is that NO ONE wanted Kathleen. She is certifiable (although she was much better on the second episode). If anyone wants to abandon their pick and trade with Ami, I would like to hear it. And I may consider it. Nevermind, that would be ridiculous. Sorry for getting your hopes up, Greg.
Man, I hope Ami doesn't lose two weeks in a row. That would be brutal.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Big Sister Gets Blindsided

So, Mary is out. Mary was picked 8th by my big sister, Ami McNay. To be fair, Ami's first pick would have been Alexis. To be fair again, no one could have seen that coming. Certainly not me. I thought Mary was a steal at pick #8. In fact, if Ami had passed her by, I may very well have scooped her up. Sorry, sis. That is just brutal luck.
I will go ahead and give my first Power Rankings of the contestants below, but first, some memos.

WEEKLY MEMOS
Memo to Chet
It is probably not a good idea to slowly mosey back to your tribe while the challenge is still going on. Especially if you are then going to later claim that you were not exhausted. If you were not exhausted, then hurry up. If you were exhausted, admit it. Instead, you looked ridiculous. Sorry, Greg. Tough stuff.

Memo to Erik
Nice work this week. You were good in the challenge. On top of that, you helped get rid of a good player, and yet no one will see you as the culprit. Let Joel and Mikey fight it out. You are in a great position. Nice, Megan.

Memo to Cirie
You rule. I am glad I picked you. Work your magic. Just remember to pace yourself. It is a long game.

Memo to Ozzy and Amanda
There are other people around! And, this is being videotaped!

Memo to Joel
Congratulations. I hope it was worth it. That was your moment. You chose to come out way too soon. You have been exposed, and no one feels close to you. You could have waited and maybe got a partner in crime before taking control of the game. Like I said, hope you enjoyed it.

WEEK 2 POWER RANKINGS
Because there are so many contestants, I am going to do separate power rankings for the Faves and the Fans.
FANS
1. Alison Gentry: Everyone likes Alexis (Joel, that is important in this game) and she did well in the challenge.
2. Megan Wood: Erik is in a great position, as I mentioned above.
3. Mirranda Meacham: Jason was almost anonymous in this episode, but he is not likely to be in trouble any time soon. Everyone seems to like him.
4. Sarah Blomquist: Mikey may have been called out, but I would still rather have a likeable guy with some game than someone with no strategy or strong people skills.
5. Rich Stafford: I have to put Joel up here, even though I tihnk he made a major mistake this week. He had a great episode, but it is likely to ruin him for the long-term. And also, he's kind of a jerk.
6. Curtis Lillie: Tracey is a little on the outs with her tribe, but she seems like the most formidable player of the ostracized three.
7. Eric Wood: Natalie is not likely to be in trouble anytime soon (what do I know, anyway?). I have yet to see any real game from her yet, though.
8. Kathleen: No one picked her (Daren switched to Parvati). I think she may (outside chance) be able to pull herself together.
9. Greg Moffat: I don't see Chet having any game socially, physically, or strategically. Not impressed.
FAVES
1. Dave McAllister: Dave picked Jonathan. Jonathan has been great so far, but the way things are split on his tribe, he could be the next out. It all depends on my girl, Cirie. This week it looked like she was with Jonathan. Next week, who knows?
2. Angela Stump: Got to admit that I did not like this pick of Ozzy, but he is being featured a lot, and he is just so, so good in the challenges. If Cirie sides with Romeo and Juliet and Cleopatra and Anthony, Ozzy may end up being the most powerful player in the game.
3. Dan Franklin: I think Cirie is in a great position. Just not too much too soon. You can do it.
4. Andrea Moffat: Amanda's name has not come up yet. If Ozzy does well, Amanda does well. As much as the couples thing can be bad, having a partner in crime works well in this game.
5. Kelly McAllister: No one is talking about voting him off. We'll see if he plays any strategy, though.
6. Dan Stump: Eliza. This is a weird one. You will understand this better if you read my last section.
7. Karina Franklin: Amy is in no trouble, and she is in an alliance. The problem: She has barely been in it so far.
8. Ruth King: Yau Man cannot slip through the cracks this time. He needs a strong alliance to help him. We'll see.
9. Daren Blomquist: Parvati could end up doing well. Right now, however, I think she is not off to a very good start.

THE STARS
When I watch Survivor I like to watch to see who the stars of this season are. Sometimes you can tell who will do well by seeing who has consistent interviews. The producers want us to get to know the players who will be around for a long time. So, here are the stars so far (in random order).
1. Jonathan. He has been all over this show. Probably the biggest star through 2 episodes.
2. Mikey. He may be in trouble, but he has been shown a lot.
3. Joel. We know he starred in this last episode.
4. Ozzy. All over it.
5. Alexis. Consistently featured.
6. Kathleen. Maybe she has been featured for bad reasons, or maybe she will be around for a long time.
7. Cirie. Especially this past episode. She seems to be a star.
8. Eliza. This is why I put her up there on the power rankings. She has been consistently shown in interviews.
9. Erik. He is the most marginal of the stars, but he still has been getting regular attention.

There you go. Others are marginally featured, and some have been barely feautred at all. Still, who knows if I know anything.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

The Picks Are In!!!

Welcome to the special Survivor Pick 'em blog. Here are the picks for Survivor Micronesia.

1. Amanda (Andrea Moffat)
2. Alexis (Alison Gentry)
3. Mikey (Sarah Blomquist)
4. Ozzy (Angela Stump)
5. Erik (Megan Wood)
6. Jason (Mirranda Meacham)
7. Joel (Rich Stafford)
8. Mary (Ami McNay)
9. Amy (Karina Franklin)
10. Cirie (Dan Franklin)
11. Yau Man (Ruth King)
12. Jonathan (Dave McAllister)
13. James (Kelly McAllister)
14. Chet (Greg Moffat)
15. Tracey (Curtis Lillie)
16. Natalie (Eric Wood)
17. Eliza (Dan Stump)
18. Kathleen (Daren Blomquist)


Now, a little commentary on the picks.
There are two groups of people that are very unappealing to me:
1. The big strong guys. Pick the athletic guy, but no the big huge guy. This season, the big sgtrong guys are James and Joel. I actually think that James is a decent pick because he may be underestimated strategically after last season (and with good reason). I wouldn't have touched Joel either, though. We'll see, Rich.
2. The hot chicks. Again, most of the women on the show are not hideous, but on every season there is at least one woman who is just out there and she is all about her appearance. This season there appear to be two: Tracey and Natalie. No wonder they went late. Sorry to Curtis and Eric.


Five Picks I like:
1. Alison Gentry: You swiped my pick! So bummed. I really like Alexis. It made me feel a little better, though, to find out that my sister wanted her also. That meant I wouldn't have got her even if Alison had let her pass. Anyway, I could be wrong, but I love that pick.
2. Sarah Blomquist: Mikey seems like someone who will get along with everyone, and who will naturally take the lead on his tribe.
3. Ami McNay: The Mary pick was a good alternative to Alexis.
4. Karina Franklin: Amy was my top pick before the first episode. She is a strong player in many respects. I love her game.
5. Dave McAllister: I love Jonathan. He is one of my all-time favorites. I wanted to pick him, but I had to let him pass. That said, most of me is still rooting for him. Who knows?


Five Picks I am not crazy about:
1. Ang Stump: Ozzy looks arrogant and as if he has a real sense of entitlement this time. I want the old Ozzy with the crazy hair. I don't know. I just have a bad feeling about him. I think he is going to try to be the Boston Rob of this season (which, if it works, will be good for him).
2. Megan Wood: Come on, picking a guy just because he has the same name as your husband. I could be wrong about Erik, but I just don't see him being as strong as Mikey and Jason.
3. Rich Stafford: I know you have good reasons for picking Joel, and you may be right. I just don't see it, though.
4. Greg Moffat: I don't know if Chet is going to last very long. That said, the pickings were slim by the time you got your pick in. And also, Jonathan was the first name on your list. Still, I might have gone with Eliza.
5. Daren Blomquist: I know you picked last, and neither Parvati nor Kathleen is an appealing pick. And, yes, Kathleen has that immunity idol. Still, she is a nut. Parvati is actually a pretty good player (in my opinion). She may find a way to stick around and get forgotten in the middle. Kathleen is insane. Who know, though? Maybe she will have time to turn it around.


My Pick:
Cirie was not my first choice. I would have picked Alexis or Mikey over her. And maybe Amy. Still, Cirie is the swing vote right now. She seems to be a bit undercover. If she can stick around, she may be able to work her skills later on. It is definitely a roll of the dice. She may be out early. Still, I felt that she had the best chance of going all the way of those remaining when I picked (10th).


Note:
Karina Franklin picked 9th. Ruth King picked 11th. Kelly McAllister picked 13th. Yet all three of them ended up with the person they originally wanted. That's good stuff.